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    Title: 台灣婦女教育程度與龍虎年效應對生育率之影響
    The Influence of Female Education and the Chinese Animal Zodiac on Fertility Rate in Taiwan
    Authors: 黃修梅
    Huang, Hsiu-Mei
    Contributors: 黃智聰
    Huang, Jr-Tsung
    黃修梅
    Huang, Hsiu-Mei
    Keywords: Granger因果關係
    生育率
    台灣
    虎年效果
    婦女教育程度
    龍年效果
    Granger causality
    fertility rate
    Taiwan fertility
    tiger year effect
    female education
    dragon year effect
    Date: 2005
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 15:58:06 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文的主要研究目的,在於將文化因素(即龍年與虎年效果)納入生育行為的考量,以重新審視台灣生育率與婦女教育程度之間的Granger因果關係。利用台灣1952年至1994年資料進行實證的Cheng and Nwachukwu(1997)及Cheng(1999),其結論指出台灣教育程度與生育率之Granger因果關係並不顯著。本文將以該文章之實證模型為基礎,並加入代表龍年效應與虎年效應的虛擬變數以建立本文模型。
    首先根據Cheng(1999)的資料與變數,利用台灣1952年至2005年之年資料,建立一個包含粗出生率、教育程度大專以上的比例、女性勞動參與率、與實質經濟成長率等四個內生變數,以及代表龍虎年效應的兩個虛擬變數之VAR模型。並以Toda and Yamamoto(1995)提出的Granger因果關係檢定,檢定台灣教育程度與生育率之間的因果關係。隨後,為增進估計的有效性,本文利用台灣地區1978年至2005年的季資料,共112個樣本進行實證研究。變數定義方面,將粗出生率替換為一般生育率,教育程度大專以上的比例替換為育齡婦女大專以上的比例。並根據上述建立之VAR模型,進行Granger因果關係檢定。
    經由本文的實證研究發現,將龍年效果與虎年效果納入考量後,台灣婦女教育程度的提昇會Granger影響生育率的下降。亦即台灣婦女教育程度日益提升,是解釋生育率下降的重要因素,此結果與Cheng(1999)所提出的結果並不一致。此外,龍年與虎年對台灣的生育率分別有顯著正向與負向的影響。
    This paper tries to revisit the null hypothesis of Granger no-causality between female education and fertility rate in Taiwan, by considering the culture factors captured by Dragon and Tiger Years which might influences the fertility behavior. In addition, this study compares the primary finding with the result proposed by Cheng and Nwachukwu (1997) and Cheng (1999) which are that female education does not affect fertility rate in Taiwan.
    According to Cheng (1999), official time series yearly data from 1952 to 2005 provided by Taiwan government are used first, and quarterly data from 1978 to 2005 are required to improve the efficiency. This study models a 4-Variables VAR and applies Granger no-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).
    The primary finding of this study is that there is a negative causality from female education to fertility rate in Taiwan, which is inconsistent with conclusions in Cheng (1999). In addition, culture factors do play a very important role in fertility behavior in Taiwan.
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    經濟研究所
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