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    题名: 紅色供應鏈及中美貿易戰對台灣半導體之影響—以台積電為例
    The impact of Red Supply Chain and US-China Trade War on Taiwan semiconductors: Taking TSMC as an example
    作者: 蕭恩喬
    Hsiao, En-Chiao
    贡献者: 洪叔民
    Horng, Shwu-Min
    蕭恩喬
    Hsiao, En-Chiao
    关键词: 台積電
    半導體產業
    紅色供應鏈
    中美貿易戰
    Semiconductor Industry
    TSMC
    US-China trade war
    Red supply chain
    日期: 2019
    上传时间: 2019-09-05 17:37:31 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 「半導體產業」是現今科技世界中不可或缺的一環,從現有的智慧型手機、筆記型電腦,到未來趨勢的擴增實境、3D成像、物聯網、穿戴式裝置、無人駕駛等等新科技皆是需要仰賴半導體的發展。近幾年由於中美貿易戰及紅色供應鏈的緣故,半導體產業開始有些變動,台灣身為全球數一數二的半導體王國,不得不正視此兩議題帶來的影響,故本研究旨在使用五力分析及採用部分PEST模型以探討台灣晶圓代工產業龍頭台積電於上述所提及的雙重影響下的變動,並同步分析中國IC製造業龍頭中芯國際,對兩者進行比較。

    五力分析中,由於台積電市佔率逾全球的50%,不可取代性極高,本研究認為只有潛在競爭者此競爭力較具威脅性。而本文所定義最可能之潛在競爭者為紅色供應鏈,但由於中國目前產能不足、尚離自產以滿足內需市場有一大段的差距,而中美貿易戰、技術研發能力落後又使得中國半導體產業發展受阻,故本研究認為其威脅在近幾年間可能對台積電傷害不大。
    另一部分,台積電在2018下半年於南京設廠以供中國內需市場,但因為中美貿易戰的華為禁令的關係,中國對高階智慧機的內需放緩,使得南京廠產能利用有下降趨勢,進而影響到台積電的獲利情形。

    在此雙重作用力下,本研究認為短期內可能會對台積電的獲利有所減損,但長期來看,由於5C世代的來臨、自動駕駛的研究、高效能運算的研究都會需要半導體的支持,而台積電在技術方面遙遙領先其競爭對手,可取代性低的情況下,於未來的前景還是頗為看好。此外,台積電亦有可能於未來進入目前看好的明星產業記憶體IC製造市場,若發展得宜,屆時甚至將使獲利率更為可觀。
    "Semiconductor Industry" is an indispensable part nowadays. Many products including smartphones, notebooks, the future of AR, 3D imaging, IoT, wearable devices, cannot be produced without IC components. Any kinds of new technology all rely on the development of semiconductors. In the recent two years, the US-China trade war and the development of red supply chain lead to some changes in the semiconductor industry which is the key industry in Taiwan. Therefore, we have to face the impact of two international issues mentioned above. This study uses five-force analysis and partial PEST model to explore the changes in TSMC, Taiwan's foundry industry leader, under the dual impacts mentioned above while simultaneously analyze China's IC manufacturing leader SMIC.
    In five-force analysis, TSMC's market share exceeds 50% of the global market, and its irreplaceability is extremely high. This study believes that only potential competitor force possesses minacity. The most likely potential competitor defined in this paper is the red supply chain. However, due to the lack of capacity in China, there is still a large domestic demand gap needing filling. In addition, the lack of China’s technological development capabilities make its semiconductor development hindered, so this study believes that this threat may not cause significant damage to TSMC in recent years.
    On the other hand, TSMC set up a factory in Nanjing in 2018 to supply China’s domestic demand. However, the US government’s ban to Huawei led to a downward trend in the utilization of Nanjing’s plant capacity, which definitely affected the profitability of TSMC.
    Under this dual causes, this study suggests that TSMC's profit may be degraded in the short term. However, its prospects for the future are quite promising, because the advent of the 5C, research on autonomous driving, and high-performance computing all need the support of semiconductor and TSMC is far ahead of other competitors in term of technological development. In addition, TSMC may also enter the memory IC manufacturing market, currently considered as the emerging industry in the future. If it develops properly, it will make the revenue even more impressive.
    參考文獻: 一、英文文獻
    [1] Aguilar, Francis J. (1967). Scanning the Business Environment.
    [2] CGMA. (2013, June 11). Porter’s Five Forces of Competitive Position Analysis. Retrieved from https://www.cgma.org/resources/tools/essential-tools/porters-five-forces.html
    [3] Desjardins, Jeff (2018, July 27). Does America View Its Trade Relationships as Fair?. Visual Capitalist. Retrieved from
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/america-trade-relationships-fair/
    [4] EPM. (2018, May 2). PEST Analysis. Retrieved from https://expertprogrammanagement.com/2018/05/pest-analysis/
    [5] Grundy, T. (2006). Rethinking and reinventing Michael Porter's five forces model. Strategic Change, 15(5), 213-229.
    [6] IC Insights. (2015, May 11). Semiconductor industry billings worldwide from 2013 to 2019, by component (in billion U.S. dollars). Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/512593/worldwide-semiconductor-industry-sales-by-component/
    [7] IC Insights. (2018, Aug. 28). Memory ICs to Account for 53% of Total 2018 Semi Capex. Retrieved from http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/Memory-ICs-To-Account-For-53-Of-Total-2018-Semi-Capex/
    [8] Sarah Mishkin. (2013, Sep. 29). Chinese companies move into supply chain for Apple components. Financial Times.
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    [11] Porter, M. E. (1991). Towards a dynamic theory of strategy. Strategic management journal, 12(S2), 95-117.
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    [14] The Economist. (2018, March 1). How the West got China wrong.
    [15] TrendForce. (2018, May 24). Top 10 Semiconductor Foundries Worldwide for 1H18, TSMC Ranks First with an Estimated Market Share of 56.1%. Retrieved from https://press.trendforce.com/press/20180524-3106.html
    [16] Wikipedia. (2011, May 13). Transistor Count. Retrived from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count


    二、中文文獻
    [1] Osiris Atom,(2018年3月22日),半導體產業:積體電路(上)。取自http://strblogaccount.pixnet.net/blog/post/177692293-%E5%8D%8A%E5%B0%8E%E9%AB%94%E7%94%A2%E6%A5%AD%EF%BC%9A%E7%A9%8D%E9%AB%94%E9%9B%BB%E8%B7%AF%EF%BC%88%E4%B8%8A%EF%BC%89
    [2] SIPO,(2019年4月),半導體產業現況。
    [3] 工研院,(2014年12月22日),台灣電子產業回顧與展望。取自https://www.itri.org.tw/chi/Content/NewsLetter/Contents.aspx?SiteID=1&MmmID=5000&MSid=621302513530161363
    [4] 中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司,(2016年至2018年),季度財報。取自https://www.smics.com/tc/site/company_financialSummary
    [5] 中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司,(2018年),中芯國際全球布局。取自https://www.smics.com/site/company_info#page_slide_3
    [6] 王韻婷,(2010年),《電子產業達成封閉式供應鏈之關鍵因素—以華碩與Dell電腦公司為例》,國立政治大學企業管理所,碩士論文。
    [7] 何培基、樊飛雄,(2003年),我國IC半導體產業發展之研究,育達研究叢刊第五、六合刊,頁53-68。
    [8] 拓墣產業研究院,(2019年2月27日),2018年全球前十大IC設計公司營收排名出爐,僅高通、聯發科衰退。取自https://www.topology.com.tw/DataContent/release/2018%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%89%8D%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7IC%E8%A8%AD%E8%A8%88%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B6%E6%8E%92%E5%90%8D%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90%EF%BC%8C%E5%83%85%E9%AB%98%E9%80%9A%E3%80%81%E8%81%AF%E7%99%BC%E7%A7%91%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80/475
    [9] 拓墣產業研究院,(2019年3月18日),2019年第一季全球前十大晶圓代工營收排名出爐,台積電市占率達 48.1%。取自https://www.topology.com.tw/DataContent/release/2019%E5%B9%B4%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E5%AD%A3%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%89%8D%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%99%B6%E5%9C%93%E4%BB%A3%E5%B7%A5%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B6%E6%8E%92%E5%90%8D%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90%EF%BC%8C%E5%8F%B0%E7%A9%8D%E9%9B%BB%E5%B8%82%E5%8D%A0%E7%8E%87%E9%81%9448.1/476
    [10] 拓墣產業研究院,(2019年5月22日),2019第一季全球十大封測排名出爐,僅京元電及頎邦營收逆勢成長。取自https://www.topology.com.tw/DataContent/release/2019%E5%B9%B4%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E5%AD%A3%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7%E5%B0%81%E6%B8%AC%E6%8E%92%E5%90%8D%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90%EF%BC%8C%E5%83%85%E4%BA%AC%E5%85%83%E9%9B%BB%E5%8F%8A%E9%A0%8E%E9%82%A6%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B6%E9%80%86%E5%8B%A2%E6%88%90%E9%95%B7/480
    [11] 果殼,(2019年5月),中美貿易戰:現在開始,是台灣最好的時代,今周刊。取自https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/80392/post/201905220039/%E4%B8%AD%E7%BE%8E%E8%B2%BF%E6%98%93%E6%88%B0%EF%BC%9A%E7%8F%BE%E5%9C%A8%E9%96%8B%E5%A7%8B%EF%BC%8C%E6%98%AF%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E5%B9%B4%E8%BC%95%E4%BA%BA%E6%9C%80%E5%A5%BD%E7%9A%84%E6%99%82%E4%BB%A3
    [12] 涂志豪,(2011年12月19日),晶圓代工爭霸 製程決高下,工商時報。
    [13] 產業價值鏈資訊平台,(2019年),半導體產業鏈簡介。取自https://ic.tpex.org.tw/introduce.php?ic=D000
    [14] 國金證券研究所,(2018年12月),半導體行業周報,頁3-4。
    [15] 葉慧君,(2000年),《企業網站上產品訊息之比較與分析-以台、美、日三地為例》,國立政治大學國際貿易所,碩士論文。
    [16] 劉佩真,(2015年),紅色供應鏈對我國半導體產業的影響評估,臺灣經濟研究月刊第38卷第10期,頁15-21。
    [17] 興業證券,(2017年7月2日),半導體產業轉移深入 國產化良機已至,頁16-30。
    [18] 陳怡旭,(2010年) ,《從SWOT及五力分析理論探討台灣晶圓代工的競爭策略—以T個案公司為例》,國立交通大學高階主管學程,碩士論文。
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    企業管理研究所(MBA學位學程)
    106363070
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1063630701
    数据类型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU201900891
    显示于类别:[企業管理研究所(MBA學位學程)] 學位論文

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