本文使用質化紮根理論、量化問卷、貝氏網路與蒙地卡羅法進行美髮產業服務失敗對企業獲利影響之模擬研究。本文透過貝氏網路建構美髮產業服務失敗對企業獲利影響之模型，並以蒙地卡羅模擬法進行服務失敗對企業獲利之預測分析，幫助美髮產業建構一套完成的模擬流程方法，以解決三大研究問題：1.預估不同的顧客抱怨所產生的機會成本差異；2.透過「what-if」分析預估各種不同服務補救策略和創新服務體驗策略的決策組合來評估對企業獲利的影響程度；3.最後基於服務失敗的分析，以RMF模型建立美髮產業顧客區隔管理。 The paper focuses on exploring the relationship between service failures and profits in the Taiwanese hairdressing industry through conducting both qualitative and quantitative research, including the grounded theory, survey method, a Bayesian network model and Monte Carlo simulation. A Bayesian network model is used to assess the extent to which service failures influence profits in the Taiwanese hairdressing industry, and Monte Carlo Simulation is conducted to analyze the outputs of the Bayesian network model and to provide a format for prediction as well. This enables the Taiwanese hairdressing industry to create a simulation process, which is able to deal with three research questions: 1. To predict the differences between opportunity cost resulted from different customers complaints; 2. To assess the extent to which a combination of service recovery strategies and strategic experiential model may greatly have an influence on business profits through “what-if” analysis; 3. To create a customer segment based on the reasons of service failures through the RMF model.