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    Title: 手機遊戲成長趨勢之研究-不同產業層級分析之異同
    A Study of the Growth Trend of Mobile Games : the Analyses Based on Different Industrial Levels
    Authors: 李嘉泰
    Li, Jia-Tai
    Contributors: 吳豐祥
    Wu, Feng-Shang
    李嘉泰
    Li, Jia-Tai
    Keywords: 手機遊戲
    成長趨勢
    成長曲線
    次產業
    產品擴散
    Mobile games
    Growth trends
    Growth curve
    Meso level
    Product diffusion model
    Date: 2019
    Issue Date: 2019-02-12 15:59:26 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究主要探討手機遊戲之成長趨勢,手機遊戲是近十年來出現之產業,根據Newzoo的產業報告,其收益已經佔整體遊戲產業的50%以上,超越了電腦遊戲以及家用遊戲機,是不可忽視的一個新興產業。本研究以成長趨勢以及不同產業層次的觀點下去分析,將手機遊戲產業分為整體手機遊戲產業以及依照不同遊戲類型做區分的次產業,試圖回答以下研究問題:成長曲線是否能適用於手機遊戲產業成長趨勢之分析?整體產業與次產業之成長趨勢分析有何關聯性與差異性?
      經過本研究分析,本研究認為選用Bass Model作為主要分析手機遊戲之模型,本研究藉由分析報告以及媒體報導,選出日系中資手機遊戲、MOBA手機遊戲、大逃殺手機遊戲這三大類型作為本研究之研究對象。在這三大類型依照綜合排名、下載量等篩選條件各挑出五款遊戲作為該類型之代表,各自將五款手機遊戲之下載量相加即成為該遊戲類型(次產業),透過下載量與累積下載量經由二次回歸求出二次方程式,進而求出市場上限m、創新係數p、模仿係數q,並藉由這三種係數,計算出預測下載量與累積下載量,與實際資訊進行比對與分析。本研究發現以畫面風格作為特色之手機遊戲,其受到廣告媒體之影響較大;以玩法作為特色之手機遊戲,其受到口碑效應之影響比較大;受到官方影響之手機遊戲則無法預測。最後將這三種類型共15款之手機遊戲數據相加形成整體手機遊戲產業,並藉由相同的過程進行分析,本研究發現無法利用模型進行預測,會有模型失效的情形發生。
    本研究之結論為以下三點,第一點為不同類型之手機遊戲,其成長曲線的型態亦有所不同;第二點為手機遊戲整體產業之成長趨勢會在不同階段分別受到不同次產業的影響;第三點為手機遊戲整體產業與其各次產業的成長趨勢呈現明顯差異。
    關鍵字:手機遊戲、成長趨勢、成長曲線、次產業、產品擴散
    This research focuses on the growth trend of mobile games. Mobile games are the industry that has emerged in the past ten years. According to Newzoo's industry report, its revenue has accounted for more than 50% of the overall game industry. It surpasses computer games and home game consoles. This study analyzes the growth trend and the perspective of different industry levels. The mobile game industry is divided into the overall mobile game industry and the meso level industries that are differentiated according to different game types, try to answer the following research questions: Can the growth curve be applied to the growth of the mobile game industry? What is the correlation and difference between the analysis of the growth trend of the overall industry and the meso level industries?
    After the analysis of this study, this study considers the Bass Model as the main model for analyzing mobile games. This study uses the analysis report and media reports to select three types of Japanese-style mobile games, MOBA mobile games, and Battle royale mobile games. The research object of this study. In these three types, according to the comprehensive ranking, download volume and other screening conditions, each of the five games is selected as the representative of the type, and each of the five mobile game downloads is added to become the game type (meso level industry), through the download amount. The quadratic equation is obtained by quadratic regression with the cumulative download amount, and then the market upper limit m, the innovation coefficient p, and the imitation coefficient q are obtained, and the predicted download amount and the cumulative download amount are calculated by the three coefficients, and the actual information is performed. Comparison and analysis. This study found that the mobile phone game featuring picture style is greatly influenced by the advertising media; the mobile game with the gameplay as its characteristic is greatly influenced by the word-of-mouth effect; the mobile game affected by the official is unpredictable. Finally, the data of these three types of mobile phone games are added to form the overall mobile game industry, and through the same process for analysis, this study found that the model can not be used for prediction, and there will be a model failure.
    The conclusions of this study are the following three points. The first point is different types of mobile games, and the pattern of growth curve is also different. The second point is that the growth trend of the overall industry of mobile games will be affected by different industries at different stages. The third point is that the overall trend of the mobile game industry and its various industries show significant differences.
    Keywords: mobile games, growth trends, growth curves, meso level, product diffusion model
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    網路資料
    [1] Newzoo-Mobile Revenues Account for More Than 50% of the Global Games Market as It Reaches $137.9 Billion in 2018:
    https://newzoo.com/insights/articles/global-games-market-reaches-137-9-billion-in-2018-mobile-games-take-half/
    [2] 工研院-產業分析方法
    lms.ctl.cyut.edu.tw/sys/read_attach.php?id=729796
    [3] Rogers Everett [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons:https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Diffusion_of_ideas.svg
    [4] 這是什麼真是太棒了嗎?近年來吸收日本文化並且高質量中國製手機遊戲正在增加中(ナニこれスゴくない? 日本文化を吸収したハイクオリティすぎる中国産ゲームアプリが近年増加中):
    https://app.famitsu.com/20170118_946285/
    [5] MOBA Map Original PNG version by Raizin, SVG rework by Sameboat
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_MOBA_zh_hant.svg
    [6] 少女前線官方推特:
    https://twitter.com/girlsfrontline
    [7] 2016年中國電競產業報告:
    http://www.cgigc.com.cn/gamedata/8514.html
    [8] 用戶2億大賺百億 陸手遊《王者榮耀》引爆熱潮:http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20170628003344-260409
    [9] 《王者荣耀》防沉迷系统一天之内遭破解!10元便可:
    https://www.wanuxi.com/《王者荣耀》防沉迷系统一天之内遭破解!10元便可/
    [10] 熱門遊戲王者榮耀劉邦張飛皮膚圖片壁紙:
    http://www.win4000.com/wallpaper_detail_113264.html
    [11] 英魂之刃口袋版 一大波新更新即將到來 周年皮膚輪刃審判曝光:
    https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/game/onvkn6m.html
    [12] 英魂之刃手遊怎麼回城 英魂之刃口袋版回程方法詳解:
    http://www.pc6.com/edu/102872.html
    [13] 絕對公平 MOBA 手機遊戲《時空召喚》代理權確定,預定 1 月進軍台港澳:
    https://www.gamebase.com.tw/news/topic/98226024/
    [14] 時空召喚官方網站:
    https://moba.yh.cn/game/news/info-2105.shtml
    [15] 科幻MOBA《時空召喚》評測:享受真正MOBA的樂趣:
    http://www.9game.cn/skzh/612549.html
    [16] [iOS] 精緻手機遊戲大作『Vainglory最終榮耀』App也有華麗畫面!!:
    https://agirls.aotter.net/post/23869
    [17] MWC 2016/《Vainglory 最終榮耀》獲最佳行動遊戲獎:https://sports.ettoday.net/news/652583
    [18] 小米槍戰模擬器設置曝光!完美實現PC上玩小米槍戰【福利】:
    https://game.shouji.com.cn/news/7117.html
    [19] 小米槍戰雪地摩托車比人跑得還慢?:
    https://www.xuehua.us/2018/06/03/小米枪战雪地摩托车比人跑得还慢?/zh-tw/
    [20] 終結者2審判日全球總決賽開戰:
    https://t2.163.com/league/cjls/
    [21] Taptap-為啥我找不到註銷登入:
    https://www.taptap.com/topic/1893836
    [22] 終結者2第三人稱新增機描 5月16日維護更新公告:
    http://news.4399.com/dhky/zixun/m/843967.html
    [23] 《荒野行動 Plus》特色解讀 玩法戰略大升級:http://play.163.com/18/0212/11/DAEM5I3B00318PFH.html
    [24] ios,iphone荒野行動下載,免appstore,可以用掃一掃玩電腦版
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvaMvoBZLZ0
    [25] 荒野行動新福利上線 冬雪之森大廳外觀免費領取
    http://www.9game.cn/hyxd/2102840.html
    [26] 絕地求生官方推特:https://twitter.com/PLAYERUNKNOWN/status/905083558833860609
    [27] 騰訊正版吃雞《全軍出擊》vs《刺激戰場》雙胞手遊對打,誰比較好玩比一比:https://www.4gamers.com.tw/news/detail/34377/tencent-two-titles-of-pubg-mobile-game-looks-exactly-the-same
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    科技管理與智慧財產研究所
    105364122
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105364122
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.TIIPM.004.2019.F08
    Appears in Collections:[科技管理與智慧財產研究所] 學位論文

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