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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 企業管理學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/120173
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/120173


    Title: Box-Jenkins隨機時間序列模式與指數平滑法之比較
    Authors: 李恒祥
    Contributors: 黃俊英
    李恒祥
    Date: 1982
    Issue Date: 2018-09-27 14:18:15 (UTC+8)
    Reference: 附錄A參考文獻
    一、中文部份:
    1.林聰明及吳水丕合著,指數平滑法之選擇與應用,(台北,華泰書局,民國70年10月)
    2.黃俊英著,行銷研究―管理與技術,(台北,華泰書局。民國70年2月)
    3.郭明哲著,預測方法―理論與實例(台北,中興管理顧問公司印行。民國65年5月)
    4.石油產品需求預測研究,(台北,中國石油公司企劃處印,民國69年9月)
    5.張紹明著,Box-Jenkins model之個案研究――台北市雨量分析與預測(台北,淡江大學,66年碩土論文)
    6.仲金城著,自廻歸―積―移動平均法(ARlMA)之檢討(台北,淡江大學管科所,69年碩士論文)
    二、英文部份:
    1. Anderson, R.L., “Distribution of the Serial Correlation Coefficient” Ann. Math. Stat., 13,1, (1942)
    2. Armstrong, J.S. Long-Rang Forecasting, New York : John Willey & Sons, 1978.
    2. Bartlett, M.S., “On the theoretical Specification of Sampling Properties of Autocorrelation time Series”, Jour. Roy. Stat. Soc., B8 , 27(1946)
    4. Box G.E.P. and G.M. Jenkins, Time series Analysis-Forecasting and Control, New York : McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1976.
    5. G,E.P. Box and D.A. pierce, “Distribution of residual Autocorrelation in Autoregressive-Integrated-Moving Average time Series Models”, Jorn. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 64, 1509, (1970)
    6. Brown, R.G. Statistisal Forecasting for inventory Control, N.Y. : McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1957.
    7. ________ , Smoothing Forecasting and Prdiction of discrete time Series, Englewood Cliffs, N.J. Prentices- Hall, Inc., 1963.
    8. Chamber, J.C., S.R. Mullick and D.D. Smith, “How to Choose the right forecasting technique, H.B.R., July-Aug., (1971), pp.45-74.
    9. Chow, W. M., “Adaptive Control of the Exponential Smoothing Constant,” The Jour. of Indust. Engineering, Vol. 16, No.5 (1965), pp.314-317.
    10. Eilon, S. and J. Elmaleh, “ Adaptive Limits in inventory Control”, Management Science, Vol. 6, No. 8 (1970), PP. 533-538.
    11. Gardner, E.S. and D.G. Danneubring, “Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing : some Guideline for Model Selection ”, Decision Science Vol.11, No.2 (1980), pp.370-383.
    12. Geurts, M.D. and I.B. Ibrahim,Comparing the Box-Jenkins Approach with Exponentially smoothed Forecasting Model : An Application to Hawaii Tourist,” J.M.R. 12, No.2, (May, 1975) pp.182-187.
    13. Gilchrist, W. Statistical Forecasting, London : John Wiley and Sons, 1976.
    14. Groff, G.K. “Emprical Comparison, of Models for short range Forecasting,” Management Science Vol.20, No. 1, (Step, 1973) pp.22-31.
    15. Holt, C.C. Forecasting Seasonal and trends by Exponentially weighted Average, Prittsbugh, Penn : Carnigie Institude of Technalogy, 1957.
    16. Jenkins, G.M. and D.G. Watts, Spectral Analysis and its Application, San Francisco : Holdon-Day, 2968.
    17. Makridakis S. and S.C. Wheelwight, Forecasting Method and Applications, New York : John wiley & Sons, 1978.
    18.Meyer, R.F., “An Adaptive Method for Routine shortterm Forasting”, International Federation of Operation Research Societies, Oslo, (July, 1963)
    19. Mongomery, D.C., “An Application of Statistical forecasting technique in an inventory Control Policy”, Production and inventory Management (Frist Quarter, 1969) pp.66-74.
    20. ________, “Adaptive Control of Exponential Smoothing Parameter by Evolutionary Opration”, AIIE Tranactions Vol.2, No.3 (1970) pp.268-269.
    21. Newbold, p. and C.W.J. Granger “Experience with forecasting Univariate time series and the Combination of Forecast”, Joun. of Roy. state Soc. A, 173, part2 (1974), pp.131-146.
    22. Nelson, R. Chales, Applied time Series Analysis for Managerial forecasting, San Francisco: Holdeen-Day, 1970.
    23. Pyndick R.S. and D.L. Rubinfeld, Econometric Models and economic forecasts, new york : McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1976.
    24. Roberts, S.D. and R. Reed, “ The Development of self-adaptive forecasting technique”, AIIE Transacrions, Vol. 1, No.4 (1969) pp.314-322.
    25. Schuter, A. “The Investigation of hidden periodicities”, Terr. Mag, 3. 13, (1879).
    26. Thomopoulou, N.J., Applied Forecasting Method, Englewood Clisff, N.J. Prentice-Hall Inc., 1980.
    27. Trigg D.W. and A.G. Leach, “Exponential smoothing with an Adaptive response rate”, Operation research Quarterly Vol. 18, No.1 (1967)
    28. Whybark, D.C. “Comparing an Adaptive Decision model and humans”, Acadamic Management Jour. Vol.6, (1970).
    29. ________, “ An Comparison of adpative forecasting techniques.”, The Logistics and Transportation review, Vol. 9, No.1 (19730, pp.13-26.
    30. Winter, D.R., “Forecasting Sales by exponential wighted Moving average”, Management science, Vol. 6, No. 3 (1960), pp.324-342.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    企業管理研究所
    70
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002007560
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[企業管理學系] 學位論文

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