|題名: ||南海緊張情勢：GDELT 時間序列數據之分析|
South China Sea Tensions : State Involvement and Prediction Using GDELT Event Data
Maritime territorial disputes
South China Sea
|上傳時間: ||2018-04-09 16:05:31 (UTC+8)|
Discussions of the South China Sea maritime territorial disputes are rife with assertions that certain state actors escalate regional tensions and that it is only a matter of time before provocations trigger armed conflict. However, these claims are based primarily on incomplete evidence, inaccurate comparisons with historical conflicts, and country or individual biases. This dissertation questions these common assertions and uses empirical evidence to assess their validity. Using time-series event data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), it analyzes (1) the relationship between state involvement and South China Sea tensions and (2) which forecast models can most accurately predict South China Sea tensions based on data from earlier time periods.
For RQ1, the analyses reveal that the involvement of certain countries corresponds with significantly higher tensions in the South China Sea, that state involvement and tensions are correlated at various positive and negative lags of interest, and that these correlations go in both directions. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in that they offer empirical evidence that confirms or refutes assertions suggesting that certain countries’ actions lead to escalation or deescalation. They also provide a solid foundation for future research, which could take specific countries as individual case studies to further investigate the relationships between state involvement and South China Sea tensions. Moreover, the results indicate that there may be even more interesting phenomena at play that merit attention in future research: evidence suggesting that certain countries may either contribute to lower tensions or avoid becoming involved when there are heightened tensions, and evidence that some countries may not be contributing to but instead reacting to tensions and volatility in the South China Sea.
For RQ2, two of the four forecast models perform better than the four benchmark models using both datasets. These findings also have important implications for policy and research. As governments become increasingly interested in using continuously updated global databases to facilitate policy-making, the results suggest that empirical data can help to inform conclusions about trends of escalation and deescalation in the South China Sea and be used to make relevant predictions. As a first cut at the data and a pioneering approach to analyzing South China Sea tensions, the analyses and findings of this dissertation represent a significant contribution to knowledge and a foundation for future research using time-series event data to understand the relationship between state involvement and tensions and the extent to which tensions can be forecasted in the South China Sea and around the world.
|參考文獻: ||Official Documents and Reports|
Julie Bishop, “ABC AM, Perth - Interview with Kim Landers,” Minister for Foreign Affairs, Government of Australia, July 13, 2016, <https://foreignminister.gov.au/transcripts/Pages/2016/jb_tr_160713.aspx>.
Ash Carter and Voltaire Gazmin, “Joint Press Conference by Secretary Carter and Secretary Gazmin in Manila, Philippines,” US Department of Defense, April 14, 2016, <https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/721687/joint-press-conference-by-secretary-carter-and-secretary-gazmin-in-manila-phili/>.
Hong Lei, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei’s Regular Press Conference on June 5, 2014,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, June 5, 2014, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1162678.shtml>.
Hua Chunying, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Regular Press Conference on January 16, 2017,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, January 16, 2017, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1430903.shtml>.
Hua Chunying, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying’s Regular Press Conference on September 1, 2017,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, September 1, 2017, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1489255.shtml>.
Tomomi Inada, “Transcript of Tomomi Inada’s Remarks: The Evolving Japan-U.S. Alliance--Keeping Asia and the Pacific Peaceful and Prosperous,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 15, 2016, <https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/event/160915_Tomomi_Inada_transcript.pdf>.
Le Thi Thu Hang, “Remarks by MOFA Spokesperson Le Thi Thu Hang on live-fire drills carried out by Chinese Taipei in the waters around Ba Binh in the Truong Sa Archipelago of Viet Nam,” Vietnam Ministry of Foreign Affairs, August 24, 2017, <http://www.mofa.gov.vn/en/tt_baochi/pbnfn/ns170824163224>.
Liu Xiaoming, “The Times Published A Signed Article by Ambassador Liu Xiaoming Entitled ‘Stop meddling in the South China Sea’,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, May 5, 2016, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zwjg_665342/zwbd_665378/t1360726.shtml>.
Liu Xiaoming, “Ambassador Liu Xiaoming Holds a Press Conference on the Award of the Arbitral Tribunal in the South China Sea Arbitration,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, July 23, 2016, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zwjg_665342/zwbd_665378/t1383890.shtml>.
Liu Zhenmin, “China Remains Committed to Peaceful Settlement of Disputes in the South China Sea through Negotiations and Consultations,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, March 25, 2016, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/lkqcxboaoyzlt2016nnh/t1350776.shtml>.
Lu Kang, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang’s Remarks on US Missile Destroyer Stethem Trespassing China’s Territorial Waters off Xisha Islands,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, July 2, 2017, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1474745.shtml>.
Lu Kang, “Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang’s Regular Press Conference on July 28, 2017,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, July 28, 2017, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1480900.shtml>.
James Mattis, “News Transcript: Remarks by Secretary Mattis at Shangri-La Dialogue,” US Department of Defense, June 3, 2017, <https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/1201780/remarks-by-secretary-mattis-at-shangri-la-dialogue/>.
John McCain and Dan Sullivan, “Statement by Senators McCain and Sullivan on South China Sea Arbitration Award,” US Senate, July 12, 2016, <https://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2016/7/statement-by-senators-mccain-and-sullivan-on-south-china-sea-arbitration-award>.
Najib Razak and Donald Trump, “Joint Statement for Enhancing the Comprehensive Partnership between the United States of America and Malaysia,” Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, September 13, 2017, <https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/13/joint-statement-enhancing-comprehensive-partnership-between-united>.
Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop, “Press Conference with Foreign Minister, Canberra,” Prime Minister of Australia, July 13, 2016, <https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/press-conference-with-foreign-minister-canberra>.
Dana W. White, “Readout of Secretary of Defense Mattis’ Meeting with Japanese Minister of Defense Onodera,” US Department of Defense, October 23, 2017, <https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/1351035/readout-of-secretary-of-defense-mattis-meeting-with-japanese-minister-of-defens/>.
Joko Widodo and Barack Obama, “Joint Statement by the United States of America and the Republic of Indonesia,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Indonesia, October 26, 2015, p. 4, <https://www.kemlu.go.id/Documents/US-RI%20Joint%20Statement%20Version%20FINAL.pdf>.
Yang Yanyi, “The European Sting publish an article by H.E. Ambassador Yang Yanyi, Head of the Chinese Mission to the EU, entitled Some Prevailing Arguments and Perceptions over the South China Sea Issue Are Simply Wrong,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, March 28, 2016, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/nhwt/t1367333.shtml>.
Fareed Zakaria and Barack Obama, “Exclusive Interview with President Barack Obama,” CNN, September 4, 2016, <http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1609/04/fzgps.01.html>.
“Australia-Japan-United States Trilateral Strategic Dialogue Ministerial Joint Statement,” Office of the Spokesperson, US Deparment of State, August 6, 2017, <https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/08/273216.htm>.
Award, Permanent Court of Arbitration, July 12, 2016, X, 1203, B, 16, <https://www.pcacases.com/web/sendAttach/2086>.
“G7 Foreign Ministers’ Statement on Recent Developments in Asia,” Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the High Representative of the European Union, September 20, 2016, p. 1, <http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000189791.pdf>.
“Joint Communiqué of the 49th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting,” Association of Southeast Asian Nations, July 24, 2016, p. 29, <http://asean.org/storage/2016/07/Joint-Communique-of-the-49th-AMM-ADOPTED.pdf>.
“Li Keqiang Expounds China’s Stance over South China Sea Issue at the 19th China-ASEAN Summit,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, September 8, 2016, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/LKQCXDYHZLDRXLHYBDLWJXZSFW/t1396693.shtml>.
“Li Keqiang Meets with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull of Australia,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People’s Republic of China, September 8, 2016, <http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/LKQCXDYHZLDRXLHYBDLWJXZSFW/t1396726.shtml>.
Limits of Oceans and Seas (Special Publication No. 23), 3rd Edition, International Hydrographic Organization, 1953, pp. 30–31, <http://www.iho-ohi.net/iho_pubs/standard/S-23/S23_1953.pdf>.
“Maritime Security and Navigation,” Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, US Department of State, <https://www.state.gov/e/oes/ocns/opa/maritimesecurity/>.
“Memorial of the Philippines: Volume I,” Government of the Republic of the Philippines, March 30, 2014, p. 8, <https://files.pca-cpa.org/pcadocs/Memorial%20of%20the%20Philippines%20Volume%20I.pdf>.
“Statement on Award of Arbitral Tribunal on South China Sea Under Annexure VII of UNCLOS,” Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, July 12, 2016, <http://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/27019/Statement+on+Award+of+Arbitral+Tribunal+on+South+China+Sea+Under+Annexure+VII+of+UNCLOS>.
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan) reiterates its absolute sovereignty over Taiping Island,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan), May 10, 2012, <https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/News_Content.aspx?n=1EADDCFD4C6EC567&sms=5B9044CF1188EE23&s=94F81457A4E53CA9>.
“Viet Nam continues opposing China’s illegal rig placement at UN,” Vietnam Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 3, 2014, <https://www.mofa.gov.vn/en/nr040807104143/nr040807105001/ns140704040726/view>.
Books and Book Chapters
Bruce A. Elleman, “China’s 1974 Naval Expedition to the Paracel Islands,” in Bruce A. Elleman and S. C. M. Paine (eds.), Naval Power and Expeditionary Wars: Peripheral Campaigns and New Theatres of Naval Warfare, 141–151, Abingdon and New York: Routledge, 2011, p. 145.
Ralf Emmers, Resource Management and Contested Territories in East Asia, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013, <https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137310149>.
M. Taylor Fravel, Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008.
Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2014.
Timo Kivimäki (ed.), War or Peace in the South China Sea?, Copenhagen: Nias Press, 2002.
William Thomson, Popular Lectures and Addresses, London and New York: Macmillan, 1889, pp. 73–74, <https://archive.org/details/popularlecturesa01kelvuoft>.
Øystein Tunsjø, “Global Power Shift, Geography, and Maritime East Asia,” in Jo Inge Bekkevold and Geoffrey Till (eds.), International Order at Sea: How it is challenged. How it is maintained., Palgrave Macmillan, 41–62, 2016, p. 54.
Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Dewar, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, Anaïd Flesken, and Guido Sanguinetti, “Conflict Data Sets and Point Patterns,” in Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Dewar, Visakan Kadirkamanathan, Anaïd Flesken, and Guido Sanguinetti (eds.), Modeling Conflict Dynamics with Spatio-temporal Data, 1–14, Springer International Publishing, 2013, <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01038-0_1>.
Academic Journal Articles and Reports
Pascal Abb and Georg Strüver, “Regional Linkages and Global Policy Alignment: The Case of China–Southeast Asia Relations,” Issues & Studies 51(4): 33–83, December 2015.
Bryan Arva, John Beieler, Ben Fisher, Gustavo Lara, Philip A. Schrodt, Wonjun Song, Marsha Sowell, and Sam Stehle, “Improving Forecasts of International Events of Interest,” European Political Studies Association 2013 Annual General Conference, July 3, 2013, <https://ssrn.com/abstract=2225130>.
Bernard M. Bass, “Two Decades of Research and Development in Transformational Leadership,” European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology 8(1): 9–32, 1999, p. 18, <https://doi.org/10.1080/135943299398410>.
Patrick T. Brandt, John R. Freeman, Tse-min Lin, and Philip A. Schrodt, “Forecasting Conflict in the Cross-Straits: Long Term and Short Term Predictions,” Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 4, 2013, <http://www.utdallas.edu/~pbrandt/Patrick_Brandts_Website/Research_files/ForecastWindows.pdf>.
Leszek Buszynski, “The South China Sea: Oil, Maritime Claims, and US–China Strategic Rivalry,” The Washington Quarterly 35(2): 139–156, 2012, p. 140, <http://csis.org/files/publication/twq12springbuszynski.pdf>.
Ralph A. Cossa, “Security Implications of Conflict in the South China Sea: Exploring Potential Triggers of Conflict,” Honolulu: Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1998, p. C-2, <http://www.geocities.ws/kweibohuang/SChinaSea.pdf>.
Christina Davis, Andreas Fuchs, and Kristina Johnson, “State Control and the Effects of Foreign Relations on Bilateral Trade,” University of Heidelberg Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series 576, November 2014, pp. 21–22, <http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/17673/1/davis_fuchs_johnson_2014_dp576.pdf>.
Francis X. Diebold and Robert S. Mariano, “Comparing predictive accuracy,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(1): 134–144, 2002, <http://www.jstor.org/stable/1392185>.
Joshua M. Epstein, “Why Model?,” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11(412), 2009, <http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/11/4/12.html>.
Amitai Etzioni, “Who Authorized Preparations for War with China?,” Yale Journal of International Affairs 37(Summer), 2013, <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2273837>.
M. Taylor Fravel, Policy Report: US Policy Towards the Disputes in the South China Sea since 1995, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, March 2014, p. 2, <https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/PR140330_US_Policy_Towards_Disputes.pdf>.
Aaron L. Friedberg, “Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia,” International Security 18(3): 5–33, 1993, p. 7, quoted in Amitav Acharya, “Will Asia’s Past Be Its Future?,” International Security 28(3): 149–64, 2004, p. 149, <https://dx.doi.org/10.1162/016228803773100101>.
John W. Garver, “China’s push through the South China Sea: the interaction of bureaucratic and national interests,” The China Quarterly 132: 999–1028, 1992, p. 1001, <http://www.jstor.org/stable/654191>.
Joshua S. Goldstein, “A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(2): 369–385, June 1, 1992, pp. 376–377, <https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002792036002007>.
Rob J. Hyndman and A. B. Koehler, “Another look at measures of forecast accuracy,” International Journal of Forecasting 22(4): 679–688, 2006.
Miles Kahler, “The Rise of Emerging Asia: Regional Peace and Global Security [Working Paper 13-4],” Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics, May 2013, p. 4, <http://www.iie.com/publications/wp/wp13-4.pdf>.
Michael T. Klare, “The United States Heads to the South China Sea,” Foreign Affairs, February 21, 2013, <http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139023/michael-t-klare/the-united-states-heads-to-the-south-china-sea>.
YingHui Lee, “Expanding CUES: Singapore’s timely proposal,” RSIS Commentaries 63, Nanyang Technological University, March 24, 2016, p. 2, <https://dr.ntu.edu.sg/bitstream/handle/10220/40431/CO16063.pdf>.
Kalev Leetaru and Philip Schrodt, “GDELT: Global Data on Events, Language, and Tone, 1979-2012,” International Studies Association Annual Conference, San Diego, CA, April 2013, <http://data.gdeltproject.org/documentation/ISA.2013.GDELT.pdf>.
Steven I. Levine, “The China Fallacy: How the US Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War,” Journal of Contemporary Asia, ahead-of-print, 1–3, 2013, p. 1, <http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00472336.2013.802613>.
Jonathan Berkshire Miller, Tensions Continue to Boil in South China Sea, Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, May 29, 2016, p. 3, <http://studies.aljazeera.net/mritems/Documents/2016/5/29/4b10b189241a43478b9f862f4d1985a6_100.pdf>.
Richard Morgan and Dan Reiter, “How War Makes the State: Insurgency, External Threat, and Road Construction in India,” revised version of paper from 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, October 17, 2013, <http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/workshop/papers/reiter.pdf>.
William Reed, “A Unified Statistical Model of Conflict Onset and Escalation,” American Journal of Political Science 44(1): 84–93, <https://doi.org/10.2307/2669294>.
Mohamad Rosyidin, “China’s Strategic Culture and the Challenge of Security Management in the South China Sea Dispute,” East Asia 34(2): 1–13, March 2017, p. 2, <https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-017-9270-5>.
Aaron Schein, Juston Moore, and Hanna Wallach, “Inferring Multilateral Relations from Dynamic Pairwise Interactions,” arXiv preprint, November 15, 2013, <http://arxiv.org/pdf/1311.3982.pdf>.
Philip A. Schrodt, “Event Data in Forecasting Models: Where Does It Come From, What Can It Do?,” Conference on Forecasting and Early Warning of Conflict, Peace Research Institute, April 19, 2015, <http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/papers.dir/Schrodt.PRIO15.EventData.pdf>.
Philip A. Schrodt and James E. Yonamine, “A Guide to Event Data: Past, Present, and Future,” All Azimuth 2(2): 5–22, July 2013, <http://dergipark.gov.tr/download/article-file/147447>.
Lester G. Seligman, “The Study of Political Leadership,” American Political Science Review 44(4): 904–915, 1950, p. 914, <https://doi.org/10.2307/1951291>.
Hugh White, “Power shift: rethinking Australia’s place in the Asian century,” Australian Journal of International Affairs 65(1): 81–93, 2011, pp. 81, 88, <https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2011.535603>.
James E. Yonamine, A Nuanced Study of Political Conflict Using the Global Datasets of Events Location and Tone (GDELT) Dataset, Pennsylvania State University, August 2013, <https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/18659 >.
News Articles, Analysis, and Commentary
Keith Bradsher, “China Is Said to Be Bolstering Missile Capabilities,” The New York Times, August 24, 2012, <http://nyti.ms/1Bge8ZD>.
Rowan Callick, “Taiwan escalates contest of the seas,” The Australian, July 14, 2014, <http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/taiwan-escalates-contest-of-the-seas/story-e6frg6so-1226987445836>.
Jun Endo, “Duterte’s pivot to Beijing brings calm to South China Sea,” Nikkei Asian Review, November 9, 2016, <http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Duterte-s-pivot-to-Beijing-brings-calm-to-South-China-Sea>.
Paterno Esmaquel II, “No mention of Hague ruling in ASEAN chairman’s statement,” Rappler, September 7, 2016, <http://www.rappler.com/world/regions/asia-pacific/145523-asean-statement-hague-ruling-south-china-sea>.
Martin Farrer, “Beijing warns US to stay out of South China Sea dispute,” The Guardian, September 8, 2016, <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/08/beijing-warns-us-to-stay-out-of-south-china-sea-dispute>.
Aaron L. Friedberg, “Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics,” The National Interest 39–40, June 21, 2011, <http://web.clas.ufl.edu/users/zselden/coursereading2011/Friedberg.pdf>.
Jim Gomez, “Q&A: Landmark ruling on South China Sea,” The Seattle Times, July 9, 2016, <https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/qa-landmark-ruling-on-south-china-sea/>.
Ralph Jennings, “Philippines Plans Low-Key Upgrades in Disputed Spratly Islands,” VOA, September 29, 2017, <https://www.voanews.com/a/philippines-upgrades-spratly-islands/4049381.html>.
Keith Johnson and Dan de Luce, “Washington’s Muddled Message in the South China Sea,” Foreign Policy, November 5, 2015, <http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/05/washingtons-muddled-message-in-the-south-china-sea-lassen-fon-subi/>.
Emiko Jozuka, “Japan to join US in South China Sea patrols,” CNN, September 16, 2016, <http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/15/asia/japan-south-china-sea-patrols/index.html>.
Lynda Jumilla, “PH to temporarily set aside sea row with China - Yasay,” ABS-CBN News, November 20, 2016, <http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/20/16/ph-to-temporarily-set-aside-sea-row-with-china-yasay>.
Justin Logan, “War over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands,” CATO Institute, February 20, 2013, <http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/war-over-senkakudiaoyu-islands>.
Simon Long, “A sea of troubles,” The Economist, November 22, 2010, <http://www.economist.com/node/17493342>.
Gordon Lubold and Jeremy Page, “U.S. to Challenge China With More Patrols in Disputed Waters,” The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2017, <https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-readies-plan-to-increase-patrols-in-south-china-sea-1504299067>.
Chris Mirasola, “Water Wars: Ringing in the New Year with Chinese Characteristics,” Lawfare, December 30, 2016, <https://www.lawfareblog.com/water-wars-ringing-new-year-chinese-characteristics>.
Manuel Mogato and Mai Nguyen, “Philippines vows fair probe after Vietnamese fishermen killed,” Reuters, September 25, 2017, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-vietnam-fishing/philippines-vows-fair-probe-after-vietnamese-fishermen-killed-idUSKCN1C00C5>.
Michael Peel, “Divided Asean nations issue mild statement on South China Sea,” Financial Times, September 9, 2016, <https://www.ft.com/content/ee78dad2-75a6-11e6-b60a-de4532d5ea35>.
Jane Perlez, “Philippines’ Deal With China Pokes a Hole in U.S. Strategy,” The New York Times, November 2, 2016, <https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/world/asia/philippines-duterte-south-china-sea.html>.
Tom Phillips, “Beijing summons US ambassador over warship in South China Sea,” The Guardian, October 27, 2015, <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/27/us-warship-lassen-defies-beijing-sail-disputed-south-china-sea-islands>.
Tom Phillips, “G20: Obama warns Beijing against South China Sea aggression,” The Guardian, September 3, 2016, <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/03/g20-obama-warns-beijing-against-south-china-sea-aggression>.
Edu Punay and Alexis Romero, “‘Joint venture with China on South China Sea violates Charter’,” The Philippine Star, August 2, 2017, <http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/08/02/1723769/joint-venture-china-south-china-sea-violates-charter>.
Kevin Rudd, “A subtle defrosting in China’s chilly war with America,” Financial Times, June 10, 2013, <http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/594776d2-d1ba-11e2-9336-00144feab7de.html>.
Saifulbahri Ismail, “China demands Indonesia rescind decision to rename part of South China Sea,” Channel NewsAsia, September 2, 2017, <http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/china-demands-indonesia-rescind-decision-to-rename-part-of-south-9179992>.
Mary Alice Salinas, “ASEAN: Obama Reaffirms US Role in South China Sea,” VOA, September 8, 2016, <https://www.voanews.com/a/southeast-asia-summit-leaders-express-concern-about-south-china-sea/3498519.html>.
Christian Shepherd and Manuel Mogato, “ASEAN, China adopt framework for crafting code on South China Sea,” Reuters, August 6, 2017, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-philippines-southchinasea/asean-china-adopt-framework-for-crafting-code-on-south-china-sea-idUSKBN1AM0AY>.
Joan Soley, “US defence chief Panetta warns on Asia territory rows,” BBC News, September 16, 2012, <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19617201>.
Jonathan Spangler, “Claimant and Non-Claimant Views on SLOCs and Freedom of Navigation,” Issue Briefings 7, Taipei: South China Sea Think Tank, 2015, <http://scstt.org/issue-briefings/2015/11/>.
Jonathan Spangler, 2015, “Let’s Get Real about the South China Sea ‘Status Quo’,” Issue Briefings 9, Taipei: South China Sea Think Tank, 2015, <http://scstt.org/issue-briefings/2015/360/>.
Alex Spillius, “China warns Barack Obama over South China Sea ‘interference’, The Telegraph, November 18, 2011, <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8899244/China-warns-Barack-Obama-over-South-China-Sea-interference.html>.
Felipe Villamor, “Philippines Promises Vietnam a Full Investigation Into Fishermen’s Deaths,” The New York Times, September 25, 2017, <https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/world/asia/philippines-vietnamese-fishermen.html>.
“Beijing hits out at US South China Sea proposal,” AFP/Yahoo! News, August 11, 2014, <http://news.yahoo.com/china-hits-us-proposal-south-china-sea-063321948.html>.
“China and Malaysia agree on military cooperation in the South China Sea,” The Guardian, November 2, 2016, <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/02/china-and-malaysia-agree-on-military-cooperation-in-the-south-china-sea>.
“China proposes three-step vision for COC consultation: FM,” Xinhua, August 6, 2017, <http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-08/06/c_136503690.htm>.
“DFA assures Hanoi of fair, thorough probe of death of two Vietnamese fishermen,” PTV News, September 25, 2017, <http://ptvnews.ph/dfa-assures-hanoi-fair-thorough-probe-death-two-vietnamese-fishermen/>.
“US Navy flies new plane over disputed South China Sea,” RT, February 26, 2015, <http://on.rt.com/7nt5ae>.
“Vietnam criticizes China’s cinema on disputed South China Sea island,” Reuters, August 1, 2017, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-china-southchinasea/vietnam-criticizes-chinas-cinema-on-disputed-south-china-sea-island-idUSKBN1AH46E>.
“Vietnam protests over Chinese military drill in South China Sea,” Reuters, August 31, 2017, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-vietnam-china/vietnam-protests-over-chinese-military-drill-in-south-china-sea-idUSKCN1BB2CG>
“What does a Trump presidency mean for China?,” CCTV, November 10, 2016, <http://english.cctv.com/2016/11/10/VIDEVI0Gd6Hefb43G40hf3ul161110.shtml>.
Avril Coghlan, A Little Book of R For Time Series: Release 0.2, June 15, 2017, <http://a-little-book-of-r-for-time-series.readthedocs.io/en/latest/src/timeseries.html>.
Rob J. Hyndman, “Measuring forecast accuracy,” March 31, 2014, <https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/af71/3d815a7caba8dff7248ecea05a5956b2a487.pdf>.
Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, “2.5 Evaluating forecast accuracy,” in Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, May 2012, <https://www.otexts.org/fpp/2/5>.
Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, “7.1 Simple exponential smoothing,” in Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, May 2012, <https://www.otexts.org/fpp/7/1>.
Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, “8.3 Autoregressive models,” in Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, May 2012, <https://www.otexts.org/fpp/8/3>.
Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, “8.4 Moving average models,” in Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, May 2012, <https://www.otexts.org/fpp/8/4>.
Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, “8.5 Non-seasonal ARIMA models,” in Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, May 2012, <https://www.otexts.org/fpp/8/5>.
Scott E. Page, The Model Thinker, University of Michigan, 2015.
R Core Team, “Auto- and Cross- Covariance and -Correlation Function Estimation,” R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2017, <http://stat.ethz.ch/R-manual/R-devel/library/stats/html/acf.html>.
James E. Yonamine and Philip A. Schrodt, “A Guide to Event Data: Past, Present, and Future,” November 28, 2011, <http://jayyonamine.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/YonamineSchrodt_A_Guide_to_Event_Data.pdf>.
James E. Yonamine, “Working with Event Data: A Guide to Aggregation Choices,” 2013, <http://jayyonamine.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Working-with-Event-Data-A-Guide-to-Aggregation-Choices.pdf>.
James E. Yonamine, “Predicting Future Levels of Violence in Afghanistan Districts using GDELT,” April 2013, p. 2, <http://jayyonamine.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Predicting-Future-Levels-of-Violence-in-Afghanistan-Districts-using-GDELT.pdf>.
“220.127.116.11. Common Approaches to Univariate Time Series,” in NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods, July 2017, <http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section4/pmc444.htm>.
“Definition of Armed Conflict,” Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, 2014, <http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/definition_of_armed_conflict/>.
“Table Details: events,” Google BigQuery/GDELT, December 4, 2017, <https://bigquery.cloud.google.com/table/gdelt-bq:full.events?tab=details>.
“Table Details: gkg_partitioned,” Google BigQuery/GDELT, December 4, 2017, <https://bigquery.cloud.google.com/table/gdelt-bq:gdeltv2.gkg_partitioned?tab=details>.
“The GDELT Story: About the GDELT Project,” GDELT Project, 2014, <http://gdeltproject.org/about.html>.
|顯示於類別:||[亞太研究英語博/碩士學位學程(IDAS/IMAS) ] 學位論文|