Relationships between current job tenure, which refers to the length of time in the current role at a specific firm, and firm-specific human capital and their determinants are examined theoretically. The approach of estimation for the survival model is explored by associating Weibull's parametric log-linear duration model with the extreme-value type-I (min.) distribution and the accelerated life model, as well as both proportional and relative hazards as embedded in Cox's proportional hazards model. By fitting the survival model to household data from the May 2012 Manpower Utilization Survey of Taiwan, the estimation results can be briefly summarized as follows: (1) Of all the covariates, formal schooling level imposes the greatest positive effect on the time length of current job tenure and hence has the greatest mitigating effect on the risk that the current job tenure fails (terminates); conversely, atypical employment imposes the largest negative effect on the time length of current job tenure and hence has the largest increasing effect on the failure risk of current job tenure. (2) The current job tenure of the reference subject fails around 8 times earlier (or ages around 8 times faster) than that of the subject with covariates. More interestingly, this implies that the risk that the current job tenure of the subject fails at a given survival time equals only around an eighth the risk that the current job tenure of the reference subject fails at about an eighth times earlier than the given survival time. (3) Estimation results from Weibull do have implications similar to results from both the accelerated failure-time and proportional hazards metrics.
臺灣經濟預測與政策 Taiwan Economic Forecast and Policy, 47(1), 67-106