本研究以組織生態理論為基礎，建立組織死亡率之隨機模型，並以1969至2000年之1046家自行車廠商為樣本，進行隨機模型之實證分析。主要之研究結果為(1)組織死亡率會隨著年齡而遞增。(2)組織死亡率與集群密度之間呈U型關係，死亡率會先隨著集群密度的增加而遞減，當集群密度達到某一低點後，死亡率則呈現遞增的情況。(3)前一年的同業創建數目對組織死亡率具正向影響。(4)組織規模對集群的競爭壓力具正向影響。(5)經濟成長率及匯率對組織死亡率的解釋力具顯著效果。此外，本研究亦對管理實務及學術研究之意涵提出說明。 This research is based on organizational ecology theory to model the stochastic processes of organizational mortality. The sample consists of 1046 bicycle related factories in Taiwan. Yearly data from 1969 to 2000 are collected to analyze the significant determinants of the organizational mortality by using stochastic models. There are five major findings: (1) Organizational mortality rate increases with organizational age. (2) There is a U shape relationship between mortality rate and population density. That is, a negative relationship was found between mortality rate and population density at the low density level. The mortality rate decreases as population density increases, at least up to some point. Beyond that point, the mortality rate increases. (3) Organizational mortality rate has a positive relationship with the number of new establishments in the previous year. (4) Larger organizations present stronger competition pressure. (5) Economic growth rate and exchange rate are significant predictors of organizational mortality. Implications for both management practices and academic research are discussed.